Tuesday, January 12, 2010

IIP Out. I Hate Statistics!


IIP numbers for the month of November 2009 are out and they are remarkable. IIP surged to a smart 11.7%. The general index now stands at 298.9. Remember the November 2008 IIP numbers?? An abysmal 2.4% but that was when the world economy was deep into recession which of course affected India too.

IIP for September and October 2009 was 9.1% and 10.3%, respectively.

Markets reacted in a good way to this ‘better-than-expected’ number. Sensex rose 70 points and Nifty rose 15 points when the number news broke out. Though, global cues ultimately weighed out, pushing down these benchmark indices. Sensex lost 104 points to close at 17,422.51. Nifty tumbled down 35 points to end the day at 5,210.40.

On the face of it, the latest IIP number seems to be brilliant but this on a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis is about only 1.5%. Anyways, India is nowhere near China’s striking 19.2% YoY IIP numbers for the month of November 2009.

Don’t know what IIP is??

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is an abstract number, the magnitude of which represents the status of production in the industrial sector for a given period of time as compared to a reference period of time.

IIP in simplest terms is an index which facet out the growth of various sectors in an economy. These numbers are released by the Central Statistical Organisation of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

In India, the base year has been fixed at 1993-94, which means IIP for 1993-94 stood at 100.

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