On December 7, 2009, environment ministers and officials met in Copenhagen for the United Nations climate conference to thrash out a successor to the Kyoto protocol. The conference, held at the modern Bella Center, ran for two weeks. 192 countries have signed the climate change convention.
Developing countries, including India and China, believe it is the responsibility of wealthy industrialized nations such as the United Kingdom and the United States to set a clear example on cutting carbon emissions.
This may interest you that the US had rejected the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, with the then US arguing that the 5 per cent reductions required by Kyoto would ‘wreck the American economy’.
However, Copenhagen sees a glimmer of hope on President Barack Obama’s stated intention to achieve an 80 per cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Some people have even named the event, the‘Hopenhagen’ Summit.
How will Global Warming impact India?
Asian megadeltas, such as the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta, are at risk because of large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding. Also, the Himalayan glaciers can melt leading to flooding, rock avalanches, disruption of water sources.
In tropical areas, crop yield is projected to decrease, even with relatively modest rises of 1-2 degrees centigrade in local temperature, increasing the risk of hunger. The changes in health will be most felt by those least able to adapt, such as the poor, the very young and the elderly.
What has India done till date?
India is doing its bit with the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) which includes 8 missions — solar, enhanced energy efficiency, sustainable habitat, water, sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem, green India, sustainable agriculture, and strategic knowledge for climate change.
India has also reportedly offered to cut energy intensity of its emissions by 20-25 per cent following similar moves from the US and China. Energy intensity means energy used per unit of income or output. This means that emissions will increase but slowly.
An emission intensity is the average emission rate of a given pollutant from a given source relative to the intensity of a specific activity.
What do the US and China announcements on voluntary cuts imply?
The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) said that for the US, the emission cap translates into a mere 3 per cent reduction below the 1990 levels while science demands that developed countries cut their emissions by 40 per cent below 1990 levels.
Besides, the US targets remain domestic and are not covered by a multilateral legally-binding agreement.
The CSE explains that China’s emissions will continue to grow but at a slower rate. How much is actually achieved will depend on the rate at which the Chinese economy grows.
In other words, if the economy grows at 7 per cent per annum, then the emissions of China, after accounting for the 40-45 per cent energy intensity reduction target will grow by 50 per cent over 2005 levels.
If the economy grows at 10 per cent per annum, then the emissions will increase by 150 per cent over 2005 levels.
But why should India feel the pressure?
India’s intensity of carbon dioxide or CO2 use is among the lowest in the world (and equal to that of Europe in 2007), and China’s is among the highest.
India’s trend decline in intensity is comparable to the world’s average. However, the centre categorically states that in no way do these ‘new’ targets put pressure on India to commit to any reduction target. The current Indian per capita emission is 1.1 tonne. For the US, this figure is more than 20 tonnes.
India’s energy intensity by unit of GDP has reduced from 0.3 kgoe (kilogramme of oil equivalent) per US$ GDP in PPP terms in 1980 to 0.16 kgoe currently. This is already lower than US and China and is comparable to Germany.
So, is the environment ministry moving away from India’s stance on climate change and G-77 principles?
The government has to engage with all players across the spectrum. It is working on the principle of common but differentiated responsibility but in keeping with the G-77 principles, has not accepted any legally-binding cuts.
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